Important facts for your Analysis: "Getting Ready for a Nuclear-Ready Iran"

Because quantity and depth of Excerpts from the book "Getting Ready for a Nuclear-Ready Iran", by Henry Sokolski and Patrick Clawson, October 2005, I am presenting them in (created directory of) August. Reported Progress: 50 followed up pages within a total of 314 pages.

Iranian nuclear soup by Russian chefs

There is no diplomatic way out of the nuclear Iran mess for the West. Key of very exit door seems to rely with the Russians, but theoretically. In practice they will not help Israel nor the Europeans during construction of all Iranian nuclear sites. It does not matter to them what threats Mahmoud Ahmadinejad can be doing to Israel or to Europe. The question western countries have to make is not if it would be logical to expect the Russians to lose billions of dollars in their atomic businesses with the Iranians. The real question is What are the reasons behind the facts Moscow decided to not drop its cooperation with Iran by pocketing 10 to 20 billion dollars in a long time sought deal with the Americans? (see reference at end). Russia seems to have an inexorable (strategic?) objective with the Iranians. It is impossible for the West to ask the Russians to compromise a thing of Iranian nuclear ambition. On the other hand, it seems to be logical Russians do not want to be judged by History as those directly responsible for the wiping of some countries off the map or for the sparking of III World War. That means that, if Moscow could say the truth - mainly to Israel, Russia does not want to turn the key on of all nuclear cycle with actual regime in place in Iran (this is that "very exit door" I mentioned before).
Probably, Russian original plans were to present the world another already cooked member for the Nuclear Club `a la North Korea, or `a la India or `a la Pakistan. By this way Russia would relieve from her back most of the blame by Israel and Europe (where UNO is?), while local very popular Pres. Putin, financially in good conditions, would be boosting all programs he had in mind for their comrades (does he "wish" a 3rd mandate of presidency?). Let's explore now the possibility of a military operation. In what this is going to affect Putin's plans? Western countries should try to find answers to this question. I know this is not going to be an easy task, because we shall take into consideration Russia also sold the Iranians state-of-art tactical defense systems for their brand new nuclear sites. And sold also the Syrians (including, of course, Hizbullah) and sold the Lebaneses many different weapons. The mess thus is really Russian made. So, we have to have patience till a better regime can lead the Iranians. If not a better one, we will nuke them when needed, later.

Reference: Book "Getting Ready for a Nuclear-Ready Iran" by Henry Sokolski & Patrick Clawson, October 2005, Chapter I, Report of the NPEC Working Group, Recommendations, at page 14: [Step] 3. Offer Russia a U.S. nuclear cooperative agreement, "To help secure the support for these [above related] resolutions from Russia, the United States should offer Moscow a nuclear cooperative deal that Moscow has long sought. This deal would allow Russia to store U.S. origin spent fuel from Asia and Europe and pocket 10 to 20 billion dollars in revenues from this business. For nearly a decade, U.S. progress on this deal has been stymied in the United States because Russian unwillingness to drop its nuclear cooperation with Iran."

Mr. Martin Indik, former US Ambassador to Israel and a friend

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Following is an excerpt of the Speech of Martin Indik - actual Director of Saban Center for ME Policy, The Brookings Institution - at US Senate FR Committee (Hearings to Iran's Nuclear Ambitions: Next Steps) on last Sept 19th:

"...complicated diplomatic challenge that United States currently confronts. The stakes could hardly be higher. If the United States fails to achieve a diplomatic outcome that provides the International Community with sufficient confidence that Iran is no longer pursuing a nuclear weapons capability, the results are likely to be dire. In the already volatile Middle East, the logical consequences of diplomatic failure are either an extended military conflict or a nuclear arms race, or both...."

So, most logic question that follows is "which countries are going to provide Nuclear 'Development' to Egypt, Saudi Arabia and some other Arab countries?"

Answer: China and Pakistan are potentially the providers of nuclear technology for Arab Gulf States.

Reference: Book "Getting Ready for a Nuclear-Ready Iran" by Henry Sokolski & Patrick Clawson, October 2005, Part II "Tehran's Nuclear Endeavors: What's the Worry?", Chapter 2, "Arab Security Responses to a Nuclear-Ready Iran", by Richard L. Russell, In The Gulf Neighborhood, page 34.

drawing downloaded from http://www.fas.org/faspir/2001/v54n1/weapons.htm

Acute and Chronic Radiation Syndrome Tables for Human Beings and Electronics

Radioactive contamination of an area is measured by a "swipe" or "smear" survey. A small piece of absorbent paper is rubbed over a 100 square centimeter area in a S-shaped pattern. A radiation detector then is used on the paper to measure the disintegrations per minute (dpm). Depending on the standard used, an area is considered "contaminated" if the dpm is above 100 - 500.
Notes:
1- In case you are researching, you may run across the terms "rem" and "rad." These are sort of obsolete terms. One Sievert equals 100 rems. One Gray equals 100 rads.
2- In case you have been attacked by Iran, check your Immediate symptoms first in order to know the dose you are contaminated (I should not be teasing this subject).



Acute Radiation Syndrome Table

Dose (Grays): 1.0<
Immediate symptoms: Mild nausea
Latent phase: days to weeks
Post-latent symptoms: In this dose range no obvious sickness occurs. Detectable changes in blood cells begin to occur at 0.25 Sv, but occur consistently only above 0.50 Sv. These changes involve fluctuations in the overall white blood cell count (with drops in lymphocytes), drops in platelet counts, and less severe drops in red blood cell counts. These changes set in over a period of days and may require months to disappear. They are detectable only by lab tests. At 0.50 Sv atrophy of lymph glands becomes noticeable. Impairment to the immune system could increase the susceptibility to disease. Depression of sperm production becomes noticeable at 0.20 Sv, an exposure of 0.80 Sv has a 50% chance of causing temporary sterility in males. At 0.75 Sv there is a 10% chance of nausea.
Prognosis: Almost certain survival

Dose (Grays): 1.0~2.0
Immediate symptoms: Mild acute symptoms occur in this range. Symptoms begin to appear at 1 Sv, and become common at 2 Sv. Typical effects are mild to moderate nausea (50% probability at 2 Sv) , with occasional vomiting, setting in within 3-6 hours after exposure, and lasting several hours to a day.
Latent phase: 10 - 14 days
Post-latent symptoms: Tissues primarily affected are the hematopoietic (blood forming) tissues, sperm forming tissues are also vulnerable. Blood changes set in and increase steadily during the latency period as blood cells die naturally and are not replaced. There is a 10% chance of temporary hair loss. Mild clinical symptoms return in 10-14 days. These symptoms include loss of appetite (50% probability at 1.5 Sv), malaise, and fatigue (50% probability at 2 Sv), and last up to 4 weeks. Recovery from other injuries is impaired and there is enhanced risk of infection. Temporary male sterility is universal. The higher the dosage in this range, the more likely the effects, the faster symptoms appear, the shorter the latency period, and the longer the duration of illness.
Prognosis: Fatality rate is about 10%

Dose (Grays): 2.0~3.5
Immediate symptoms: Nausea becomes universal (100% at 3 Sv), the incidence of vomiting reaches 50% at 2.8 Sv. Nausea and possible vomiting starting 1 to 6 hours after irradiation and lasting up to 2 days
Latent phase: 7 - 14 days
Post-latent symptoms: Illness becomes increasingly severe, and significant mortality sets in. Hematopoietic tissues are still the major affected organ system. When symptoms recur, the may include epilation (hair loss, 50% probability at 3 Sv), malaise, fatigue, diarrhea (50% prob. at 3.5 Sv), and hemorrhage (uncontrolled bleeding) of the mouth, subcutaneous tissue and kidney (50% prob. at 4 Sv). Suppression of white blood cells is severe, susceptibility to infection becomes serious. At 3 Sv the mortality rate without medical treatment becomes substantial (about 10%). The possibility of permanent sterility in females begins to appear. Recovery takes 1 to several months.
Prognosis: Fatality rate 35% to 40%

Dose (Grays): 3.5~5.5
Immediate symptoms: Nausea and vomiting within half an hour, lasting up to 2 days
Latent phase: 7 - 14 days
Post-latent symptoms: Hair loss, internal bleeding, severe bone marrow damage with high risk of bleeding and infection. Hemopoietic Syndrome. Mortality rises steeply in this dose range, from around 50% at 4.5 Sv (LD50) to 90% at 6 Sv (unless heroic medical intervention takes place). Hematopoietic tissues remain the major affected organ system. The symptoms listed for 2.0-3.5 Sv increase in prevalence and severity, reaching 100% occurrence at 6 Sv. When death occurs, it is usually 2-12 weeks after exposure and results from infection and hemorrhage. Recovery takes several months to a year, blood cell counts may take even longer to return to normal. Female sterility becomes probable.
Prognosis: Fatality rate 50% within 6 weeks

A Break for You to Breathe

Dose (Grays): 5.5~7.5
Immediate symptoms: Severe nausea and vomiting within 15 - 30 minutes, lasting up to 2 days
Latent phase: 5 - 10 days
Post-latent symptoms: Hair loss, internal bleeding, severe bone marrow damage leading to complete failure of blood system, high risk of infection, moderate gastrointestinal damage. Gastrointestinal Syndrome. Survival depends on stringent medical intervention. Bone marrow is nearly or completely destroyed, requiring marrow transfusions. Gastrointestinal tissues are increasingly affected. The final phase lasts 1 to 4 weeks, ending in death from infection and internal bleeding. Recovery, if it occurs, takes years and may never be complete.
Prognosis: Death probable within 3 weeks

Dose (Grays): 7.5~10
Immediate symptoms: Excruciating nausea and vomiting within 5 - 15 minutes, lasting for several days
Latent phase: 5 - 7 days
Post-latent symptoms: Hair loss, internal bleeding, severe bone marrow damage leading to complete failure of blood system, high risk of infection, severe gastrointestinal damage.
Prognosis: Death almost certain within 3 weeks. Complete recovery impossible.

Dose (Grays): 10~20
Immediate symptoms: Immediate nausea occurs due to direct activation of the chemoreceptive nausea center in the brain. The onset time 5 minutes.
Latent phase: 5 - 7 days
Post-latent symptoms: Very high exposures can sufficient metabolic disruption to cause immediate symptoms. Above 10 Sv rapid cell death in the gastrointestinal system causes severe diarrhea, intestinal bleeding, and loss of fluids, and disturbance of electrolyte balance. These effects can cause death within hours of onset from circulatory collapse. Following an initial bout of severe nausea and weakness, a period of apparent well-being lasting a few hours to a few days may follow (called the "walking ghost" phase). This is followed by the terminal phase which lasts 5 - 12 days. In rapid succession prostration, diarrhea, anorexia, and fever follow. Death is certain, often preceded by delirium and coma. Therapy is only to relieve suffering.
Prognosis: Certain death

Dose (Grays): 20~80
Immediate symptoms: Immediate disorientation and coma will result, onset is within seconds to minutes.
Latent phase: None
Post-latent symptoms: CNS Syndrome. Metabolic disruption is severe enough to interfere with the nervous system. Convulsions occur which may be controlled with sedation. Victim may linger for up to 48 hours before dying.
Prognosis: Certain death

Dose (Grays): > 80
Immediate symptoms: Coma
Latent phase: None
Post-latent symptoms: The U.S. military assumes that 80 Sv of fast neutron radiation (from a neutron bomb) will immediately and permanently incapacitate a soldier. Lethal within 24 hours due to damage to central nervous system.
Prognosis: Certain death

Note: Sorry, there is no information available about symptoms of radiation on pets.

Chronic Radiation Syndrome Table

General Public
30-day limit 0.0004 Sieverts (0.4 milli-Sieverts)
annual limit Adult: 0.05 Sieverts, Minor: 0.005 Sieverts
career limit N/A
accident limit 0.25 Sieverts
acute limit N/A

Occupational Workers
30-day limit 0.4 milli-Sieverts
annual limit 0.05 Sieverts
career limit 0.05 x (age in years-18) Sieverts
accident limit 1 Sievert
acute limit N/A

Note: for a pregnant woman it is 0.005 Sievert total for the duration of the pregnancy.

Electronics are also vulnerable to radiation (including particle beam weapons) due to mechanical disruption, as you can see from Christopher Thrash's notes.
Anthony Jackson says:
"Modern rad-hardened electronics can survive a few hundred to a few thousand grays, and will generally continue functioning until destroyed; non-hardened electronics won't handle even one gray very well, and will crash more or less instantly. In general, more advanced chips, because they have smaller circuits, are more vulnerable to radiation than more primitive designs (sample of a modern rad-hard CPU. Note that it is only guaranteed up to 200 grays, and is 4-5 years behind a modern CPU)."
Source: http://www.projectrho.com/rocket/rocket3ah.html
Check http://www.bt.cdc.gov/radiation/index.asp for emergencies.

Rockets are not missiles

On year 2000 I was defending Israel in an Internet open forum about the Middle East, and I said then: When missiles start falling on Israeli cities we will be alone, as always. Hizbullah and Hamas rockets are not missiles and we fortunately are more able to defend ourselves against missiles than from those terror rockets. The point is, and world has consensus in that, conventional missiles are not nuclear weapons nor dirty bombs. Only deep enemies of Israel and of Jewish people want to see Israel under attack of unconventional missiles as they are delighting to see us under rocket attacks today. Civilized world that saw - shocked - airplanes striking buildings should be well aware of that, because human beings – and not animals - shall be the ones here to prevail.

Between Ideas and Actions, Don Quixote knows the distances

I regret to not have the names of the Authors attached to following excerpts of their works:

Good article, with the great "…we need to stop acting as if relinquishing territory is the core and perhaps sole component of our strategy to achieve peace. To do so feeds the myth that "occupation" is the crux of the conflict, rather than the Islamist/Arab refusal to accept the right of the Jewish people to a state in our land." I'd like only to add the respectful and highly rational posture of Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries on the sparking moments of the war with Hizbullah. May be not exactly towards Israel, but clearly against that proxy of Syria and Iran.

Your comment: "transfer of knowledge and technology to terrorist groups by rogue elements within the Iranian regime, which might end in a non-conventional terrorist attack" is perfectly logic. About "Israel has genuine concerns about the Tehran's weapons programs", as noticed by Chatham House, this is also right. The problem is with your assertion: "In either case Israel has to weigh the dangers and its response to them." Why that, I ask you. A dirty bomb (with Iranian radioactive material) a la September 11th, in middle of Eiffel Tower, is not an European concern? Should Israel make Western world a cleaning service? And please tell me: a service like a favor just because Israel has higher chance to disappear first from the map by Iran?

Apocalyptic Horses of Iran

Every Israeli, when watching Sadam Hussein in a tribunal recent days, must realize - not the situation of ex-Iraq's president - but the fact Israel was not nuclear attacked by him. We are alive and main thing soil of Israel radiates is a lot of Life. We did the right thing and on the proper moment to eliminate a threat against our existence. We did it preemptively, before Israel's enemies could start the bla-bla-blas condemning our right to breathe. If Iran is rising apocalyptic horses to enter the skies of the Jewish State, this is just because we are still letting them to do it. Iranians will be sad, but both of us will be alive.

For more about Apocalyptic Horses: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Horsemen_of_the_Apocalypse

Read post "Acute and Chronic Radiation Syndrome Tables" (in case Iran is wiping us off the map).