My Photo
Name:
Location: Petach Tiqva, Israel

Wednesday, October 11, 2006

Iranian nuclear soup by Russian chefs


There is no diplomatic way out of the nuclear Iran mess for the West. Key of very exit door seems to rely with the Russians, but theoretically. In practice they will not help Israel nor the Europeans during construction of all Iranian nuclear sites. It does not matter to them what threats Mahmoud Ahmadinejad can be doing to Israel or to Europe. The question western countries have to make is not if it would be logical to expect the Russians to lose billions of dollars in their atomic businesses with the Iranians. The real question is What are the reasons behind the facts Moscow decided to not drop its cooperation with Iran by pocketing 10 to 20 billion dollars in a long time sought deal with the Americans? (see reference at end). Russia seems to have an inexorable (strategic?) objective with the Iranians. It is impossible for the West to ask the Russians to compromise a thing of Iranian nuclear ambition. On the other hand, it seems to be logical Russians do not want to be judged by History as those directly responsible for the wiping of some countries off the map or for the sparking of III World War. That means that, if Moscow could say the truth - mainly to Israel, Russia does not want to turn the key on of all nuclear cycle with actual regime in place in Iran (this is that "very exit door" I mentioned before).
Probably, Russian original plans were to present the world another already cooked member for the Nuclear Club `a la North Korea, or `a la India or `a la Pakistan. By this way Russia would relieve from her back most of the blame by Israel and Europe (where UNO is?), while local very popular Pres. Putin, financially in good conditions, would be boosting all programs he had in mind for their comrades (does he "wish" a 3rd mandate of presidency?). Let's explore now the possibility of a military operation. In what this is going to affect Putin's plans? Western countries should try to find answers to this question. I know this is not going to be an easy task, because we shall take into consideration Russia also sold the Iranians state-of-art tactical defense systems for their brand new nuclear sites. And sold also the Syrians (including, of course, Hizbullah) and sold the Lebaneses many different weapons. The mess thus is really Russian made. So, we have to have patience till a better regime can lead the Iranians. If not a better one, we will nuke them when needed, later.

Reference: Book "Getting Ready for a Nuclear-Ready Iran" by Henry Sokolski & Patrick Clawson, October 2005, Chapter I, Report of the NPEC Working Group, Recommendations, at page 14: [Step] 3. Offer Russia a U.S. nuclear cooperative agreement, "To help secure the support for these [above related] resolutions from Russia, the United States should offer Moscow a nuclear cooperative deal that Moscow has long sought. This deal would allow Russia to store U.S. origin spent fuel from Asia and Europe and pocket 10 to 20 billion dollars in revenues from this business. For nearly a decade, U.S. progress on this deal has been stymied in the United States because Russian unwillingness to drop its nuclear cooperation with Iran."

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home